The Global Story Is the Iran war helping Putin?
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Mar 30, 2026 
Mark Galeotti, author and longtime Russia analyst, explains how the Iran war reshapes Putin’s options. He discusses the surge in Russian strikes, oil revenues and sanctions evasion. He also covers intelligence ties with Tehran, Western divisions and whether this turmoil gives Russia a short-term advantage.
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Commodity Spike Gives Russia A Financial Boost
- The Iran war raises commodity prices, giving Russia a windfall from energy and materials like fertiliser and aluminium.
- Mark Galeotti estimates the Kremlin may have netted roughly $1.5 billion so far from higher oil revenues amid the crisis.
Air Defence Shortages Prioritise Gulf Over Ukraine
- Iran attacks are consuming advanced air-defence munitions, slowing resupply to Ukraine for systems like Patriot.
- Galeotti notes the conflict has used about two years' production of Patriot missiles, delaying transfers to Kyiv.
Western Disunity And Economic Strain Undermine Support For Ukraine
- The Iran war strains Western unity and increases economic costs in Europe, which could erode long-term support for Ukraine.
- Rising energy bills and political divisions risk making sustained Ukrainian aid harder to maintain.