Maggie Lake Talking Markets Episode 14: Is The US Stock Rally A Trap? With Harry Melandri
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Feb 9, 2026 Harry Melandri, advisor at MI2 Partners and author of Thoughts from the Divide, weighs in on whether the recent stock bounce is a genuine recovery or a fiscal-boost trap. He unpacks the surprising sell-off in gold, silver and Bitcoin. He explains why Kevin Warsh is not an inflation hawk and explores policy moves, reshoring limits, and hedging strategies as markets price in possible slowdowns.
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Fiscal Boost Could Temporarily Support Stocks
- Harry Melandri sees a short-term fiscal boost (Q1 ~3% annualized) that can support equities even if long-term risks remain.
- He warns that heavy fiscal and monetary support before midterms could leave markets exposed once the levers are exhausted.
Shelter Declines Ease Near-Term Inflation
- Melandri isn't particularly worried about CPI in the short term because shelter components are easing in many metros.
- He cautions that inflation dynamics could change if a slowdown materializes and shelter momentum reverses.
Warsh/Walsh Signals Softer Policy, Not Hawkishness
- Melandri argues Kevin Walsh's nomination signals easier policy and balance-sheet engineering rather than genuine hawkish tightening.
- He expects the Fed to reduce its SOMA as banks expand balance sheets under looser supervision, enabling rate cuts later.
