The Rundown Why the Oil Shock Could Trigger the Next Recession | Mike McGlone
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Mar 9, 2026 
Mike McGlone, Senior Commodities Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence with decades in commodity markets. He breaks down the Strait of Hormuz oil shock and its spike above $90. He discusses how oil swings could ripple into inflation, consumer spending, and stocks. He also covers commodity volatility, U.S. supply dynamics, and why these shocks might presage a major market correction.
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Front Contracts May Mislead On Yearend Prices
- McGlone expects front-month crude to fall by year-end despite current spikes.
- He notes DEC (December) futures trade much lower (around $68) indicating the market's back months already price in declines.
Western Hemisphere Became The Price Maker
- The Western Hemisphere is now the global price maker for crude thanks to growing U.S. production and exports.
- McGlone highlights producers will hedge and ramp supply when prices spike, pressuring prices lower over time.
Use Back Months To Gauge Real Oil Risk
- Expect rising prices to incentivize U.S./Western Hemisphere producers to hedge and add supply, which will depress prices later.
- Use futures/back-month contracts to see market expectations rather than front-contract noise.