HousingWire Daily The big miss on jobs, escalating oil prices and mortgage rates
16 snips
Mar 9, 2026 
Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst focused on housing and mortgage data, breaks down recent market chaos. He covers the surprising jobs miss and its immediate market moves. He discusses how a surge in oil tied to Iran news pushes and pulls on rates. He outlines why mortgage spreads stayed steady and what to watch next.
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Mortgage Spreads Kept Rates Calm Amid Market Drama
- The 10-year yield and mortgage rates stayed unusually calm despite volatile macro news.
- Logan Mohtashami links this to mortgage-backed security purchases and improved mortgage spreads cushioning rate spikes during the week's drama.
Jobs Softening Driven By Narrow Breadth
- The labor market has been gradually softening since 2025 with persistent negative revisions.
- Logan emphasizes that only two sectors were driving jobs growth and when they turned negative overall payrolls weakened, limiting bond selling.
Oil Spike Versus Labor Created Rate Tug Of War
- Oil's parabolic rise created a tug-of-war between inflation signals and softer labor data.
- Logan notes oil leapt from about $56 to $92, but mortgage rates barely moved because spreads and Fed policy capped yield spikes.