FICC Focus Macro Matters: SFVegas Recap with BI’s MBS Strategist Adelberg
Feb 26, 2026
Erica Adelberg, head of mortgage strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence who covers MBS and housing policy, walks through takeaways from the SFVegas finance conference. She discusses GSE reform timing and possible privatization paths. She explains shifts in credit scoring and investor worries. She also covers AI and tech accelerating mortgage origination and attendees’ views on low recession risk.
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GSE Reform Talk Likely Plan For Plan
- GSE reform talk is active but unlikely to conclude in 2026.
- Panelists at SF Vegas expect announcements or a
GSE Portfolio Moves Tighten Mortgage Spreads
- Government backing and GSE portfolio actions strongly influence mortgage spread tightness.
- Adelberg noted January moves to add MBS to GSE portfolios could contradict full privatization goals.
New Credit Scores Change Mortgage Risk Signals
- Credit scoring methodology changes will force recalibration of underwriting and prepayment models.
- VantageScore 4.0 uses trended data and rental history, so a 700 on different scores implies different PDs.