Part Of The Problem Trump to Sell War at the SOTU
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Feb 25, 2026 They debate whether the State of the Union will be used to sell a war with Iran and predict Trump’s rhetorical strategy. They dissect a claim that Iran is “a week away” from a bomb and question its accuracy. They explore how past U.S. actions shaped Iran’s enrichment, the regional risks of escalation, and the chaos that might follow any regime change.
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Watch For A Two‑Pronged SOTU Pitch
- Expect the administration to combine boasting about prior actions with attempts to justify further strikes; watch for a two-pronged SOTU message.
- Dave Smith predicts Trump will tout short wars' success while simultaneously pushing for a deal or war with Iran.
'Week Away' Claim Lacks Evidence
- Steve Witkoff's 'week away' claim about Iran's nuclear breakout is contradicted by other intelligence and Israeli statements, making it unreliable messaging.
- Dave Smith and Robbie Bernstein point out Netanyahu and inspectors suggested a longer timeline and that attacks/chaos can actually accelerate proliferation.
Attacks Increase Nuclear Risk Not Reduce It
- Attacking Iran risks making it a nuclear state because strikes pushed inspectors out and reduced transparency after the 12-day war.
- Smith emphasizes Iran had inspections under the JCPOA and kicking inspectors out raises breakout risk and uncertainty.