The Information's TITV Inside SpaceX’s Confidential IPO Filing, Blackstone’s Sell-off Opportunity, Prediction Market-Crypto Crash Theory
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Apr 2, 2026 
Ken Brown, senior finance editor tracking prediction markets and crypto regulation. Yazan El-Baba, Emergence Capital partner focused on enterprise AI efficiency. Anita Ramaswamy, financial columnist covering asset managers and private credit. Franco Granda, PitchBook analyst modeling aerospace and satellite valuations. They dig into SpaceX’s valuation math, Starlink growth assumptions and Starship risks. They also debate Blackstone’s private credit exposure, AI firms’ need for efficiency, and the regulatory squeeze on prediction markets.
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Direct To Device Is Starlink's Long Term Play
- Franco models Starlink moving to direct-to-device (cell phones, cars, IoT) to sustain future growth despite lower ARPU.
- He forecasts ~1.1 billion direct-to customers by 2040 with $3–$5 monthly revenue per user assumptions.
TerraFab Is A Big Narrative With Real Cost Hurdles
- TerraFab and Space-based data centers are primarily narrative plays tying SpaceX and Tesla futures together.
- Franco estimates a 100k-wafer fab would cost $70B+ and take 5+ years, making it a high-risk long-term project.
Blackstone Stock Drop Overstates Software Risk
- Blackstone's stock drop over private credit fears masks diversified performance across businesses beyond software exposure.
- Anita Ramaswamy notes software is ~7% of assets and ~10% of credit, so the firm's broader real estate and PE arms soften the hit.