The Adoption Curve

On today’s show we’re talking about how demand patterns will change in the wake of the pandemic. How will our world be different post-pandemic. Will people want to dine out the way they did before?

I just spent a month in Mexico at a resort with incredibly beautiful restaurants. I have to say, I really enjoyed eating out in restaurants after nearly two years of not experiencing restaurants.

Like anything, there will be a transition. But transitions always come in waves. Transitions are started by the innovators. These are the folks who are blazing a trail before anyone else is even aware that an option exists. These are next followed by the early adopters. These folks love to try things that are new.

The next major group are the early majority, followed by the late majority, and then finally the laggards.

This adoption curve applies to virtually anything. It applied historically to the radio, then television, video tape recorders, digital cameras, cell phones. It applied to travel by steam ship, air travel and it will apply to space travel.

The adoption curve applied to buying groceries online. It applies to electric cars. The adoption curve applies to working from home. The adoption curve applied to using credit cards for purchases.

Today that same curve will apply to changes in the way people travel. The way people choose to live.

When you look at the adoption curve, it looks like a letter S. Adoption is slow at first and then accelerates through the middle, and then finally takes a long long time to reach the remaining holdouts in the population. I still know a few people who don’t own a cell phone. But not many.

The question is whether you are dealing with a fad or a trend? A fad will achieve market prominence and then fade.

Are electric cars a fad or a trend? Are Cruise ships a fad or a trend?

How are these trends or fads related? Is your real estate capable of providing rapid charging for electric vehicles? Do your buildings have secure e-commerce delivery lockers? Homes in the old days used to have a locker for milk delivery next to the front door. Fascinating that the same concept is being reincarnated a few decades later.

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Host: Victor Menasce

email: podcast@victorjm.com