Based Camp | Simone & Malcolm Collins

The Lindy Illusion: Why Old Things Suck

Mar 4, 2026
They unpack how Queen Victoria invented much of modern Scottish pageantry and why many “ancient” traditions are recent inventions. They challenge the Lindy Effect’s modern relevance and show how rapid technological and cultural change can invert longevity assumptions. They trace survivorship bias, shrinking corporate lifespans, and how fashion, foods, and rituals are often crafted, marketed, or reinvented rather than truly ancient.
Ask episode
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
INSIGHT

Lindy Only Works In Stable Worlds

  • The Lindy Effect assumes stability: older non-perishable things last longer only in a stable environment.
  • Malcolm Collins argues rapid technological, economic, and memetic change in modernity inverts Lindy and breaks its predictive power.
ANECDOTE

Lindy Origin Story From A Deli

  • The Lindy name came from comedians at Lindy's delicatessen who observed TV overexposure burned out comics faster.
  • Malcolm Collins notes Taleb later repurposed the deli anecdote into a broad longevity heuristic he says misreads the origin.
INSIGHT

Fortune 500 Lifespans Have Plummeted

  • Corporate longevity has collapsed: average Fortune 500 tenure fell from ~50–60 years in the 1950s–60s to ~15 years today.
  • Malcolm Collins uses this churn as evidence that old survival no longer guarantees future persistence.
Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode
Get the app