The David Frum Show Is Anybody Actually Winning Trump’s Iran War?
62 snips
Apr 15, 2026 
Matt Pottinger, former U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor, Marine officer, and journalist, brings national security and China expertise. He talks about collapsed Pakistan talks and Iran’s uranium buildup. They debate Strait of Hormuz blockades, naval escorts versus drone threats, China’s posture and possible weapons transfers, and who profits geopolitically from rising oil prices.
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Why Islamabad Talks Quickly Collapsed
- The Islamabad talks failed because Iran refused to give up enriched uranium or its enrichment capability.
- Matt Pottinger says Iran holds ~60% enriched uranium (near-fissile) and won't surrender enrichment, making a negotiated settlement unlikely.
Ceasefire Exists Mostly On Paper
- The current ceasefire is largely nominal because both sides are conducting dueling blockades in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Pottinger explains Iran charges tolls and the U.S. counters by interdicting ships that pay Iran or carry Iranian oil, which are acts of war.
Cheap Weapons Shift Naval Power
- Cheap, portable weapons have democratized the ability to contest sea lanes and threaten superpower navies.
- Pottinger notes drones, sea mines, coastal defenses and man-portable air defenses let Iran and proxies stop commercial traffic.
