JB Mackenzie: "I Have A Prediction To Make"

9 snips

Dec 3, 2025

JB Mackenzie, Vice President and GM of Futures at Robinhood, shares insights into the exciting world of prediction markets. He discusses Robinhood's innovative approach to engaging retail investors with unique financial products and the shift from futures to event contracts. The conversation touches on the end of quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve and explores the implications for market dynamics. JB elaborates on the importance of liquidity and the competitive landscape in prediction markets, while giving a glimpse into upcoming trends and sports betting examples.

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INSIGHT

Retail Sophistication Fueled By Mobile Tools

JB observes Robinhood clients are far more sophisticated due to mobile access to institutional-grade information.
He argues education, low friction, and tech made them one of the fastest-growing FCMs at CME.

ADVICE

Trade Probabilities, Not Complex Structures

Use event contracts as direct probability trades priced 0–100% to express beliefs with small stakes.
Close positions when probabilities move in your favor or hold to resolution for a binary payoff.

INSIGHT

Mixed Liquidity Produces Truer Prices

JB highlights mixed liquidity from market makers and retail creates truer market beliefs and better pricing.
Retail traders can and do improve pricing versus solely professional liquidity providers.

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In this episode of 'On the Tape,' Danny Moses is joined by JB Mackenzie, Vice President and General Manager of Futures and International at Robinhood, to discuss the burgeoning event contracts sector, including Robinhood's recent acquisitions and partnerships. They delve into prediction markets, emphasizing how Robinhood engages retail investors through innovative financial products and technological advancements. They also discuss the end of quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve, implications of potential changes in Fed leadership, and the economic impact of leveraged assets like Bitcoin. Additionally, the conversation touches on market activities, regulatory considerations, and the future of event contracts. Concluding with a focus on sports picks, Moses and Mackenzie provide a comprehensive overview of the current financial landscape and the dynamic role of prediction markets.

ABOUT THE SHOW

For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.

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