The Long View

Bill Bernstein: Revisiting The Four Pillars of Investing

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Jul 11, 2023
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INSIGHT

Insurance Costs Returns

  • Less-correlated assets, like gold or catastrophe bonds, offer insurance against market downturns but have lower returns.
  • Their value comes from protection, so expect to 'pay a premium' through lower overall returns.
ADVICE

Forecasting Returns

  • Don't rely too heavily on past returns when forecasting future returns.
  • Falling interest rates inflated past returns, but this is unlikely to continue.
INSIGHT

Value vs. Growth

  • Value stock underperformance is likely due to investors overpaying for growth stocks.
  • The wide valuation spread between value and growth indicates this trend.
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