Capitalmind with Deepak & Shray Low Inflation. Weak Rupee. Falling Stocks. What's REALLY Going On?
Jan 28, 2026
A data-driven dive into why 8% GDP and low headline inflation feel at odds with a weakening rupee and muted market returns. They unpack headline vs core inflation, rent spikes, and measurement quirks behind GDP. Discussion covers gold imports, RBI choices on the currency, why markets ignore growth, and implications of new mutual fund fee rules.
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Demand Clear RBI Action On Currency
- Watch RBI's choice: actively sell reserves to stabilise the rupee or step back and allow a larger depreciation.
- Deepak Shenoy advises one clear policy is better than indecision for currency stability.
GDP Numbers Have Big Measurement Gaps
- India's reported GDP has measurement complexities: production vs consumption methods and an old base year (2011–12) distort real growth.
- Deepak Shenoy warns large discrepancies between methods make the 8.2% print suspicious.
Large GDP Discrepancies Are A Red Flag
- The current discrepancy between production- and consumption-based GDP estimates is unusually large and has opposite signs.
- Deepak Shenoy flags this as a warning that reported real growth may be overstated.
