Bulwark Takes Possible Ground Troops in Iran, Trump Speech Preview and The Slow-Motion Destruction of NATO
Apr 1, 2026
A live preview of Trump’s major speech and how it could reshape US strategy. A gritty look at the prospect of ground troops in Iran and which units might be involved. A deep dive into how rhetoric and policy choices are straining NATO and empowering rivals. Discussion of historical troop-miscalculations and what repairing alliances might require.
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Deployed Forces Are Too Small For Big Iran Objectives
- U.S. forces being sent to the region are too small to accomplish multiple strategic missions in Iran.
- Two Marine expeditionary units plus an 82nd Airborne brigade can do limited seizures but cannot sustain broad campaign goals across Iran's vast territory.
No Clear Theory Of Victory Guides The Campaign
- The administration appears to lack a coherent theory of victory connecting military violence to political end states in Iran.
- Mark Hertling and Ben Parker highlight missing action-reaction-counteraction planning and doubts about whether risky outcomes were fully briefed to the president.
Troop Numbers Must Match Postcombat Tasks
- Historical troop-to-task mismatches show invasions fail when planners underestimate post-combat requirements.
- Hertling cites General Shinseki vs. Rumsfeld in 2003 and contrasts Russia's failing 2022 Ukraine campaign to emphasize will and capability differences.