Foreign Policy Live What Is Iran’s Endgame?
9 snips
Mar 31, 2026 
Ali Vaez, project director at the International Crisis Group who tracks Iranian politics and strategy. He breaks down who really runs Iran and Tehran’s contingency planning. He outlines Iran’s goals: stretching the conflict, degrading opponents, and imposing economic costs. He assesses risks of U.S. escalation, postwar rebuilding and nuclear paths, and what might make Tehran trust a deal.
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Iran Survives Decapitation Through Systemic Resilience
- The Islamic Republic is a resilient multi‑center system that survives leader decapitation.
- Ali Vaez explains killed leaders were replaced and networks across institutions fill gaps, so removing one figure won't collapse the regime.
Hardliners Have Gained the Upper Hand
- New leadership in Tehran is more hardline and less risk averse than previous pragmatists.
- Vaez names Muhammad Baghir Zul-Ghar and others as radicals who pushed a belligerent posture, including early closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Mosaic Command Maintains Iranian Coordination
- Iran preserved command and control through contingency planning and a 'mosaic' provincial approach.
- Vaez says predesigned provincial plans and centralized targeting choices show continued coordination despite fears of compromised digital comms.
