The Market Huddle DOG CHASING ITS OWN TAIL (Guest: Vincent Deluard)
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Dec 13, 2025 
Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro at Stonex, shares his insights on today's economic landscape. He reveals a shift in perspective from a focus on debt crises to issues of affordability and asset prices. Vincent dives into the self-reinforcing cycle of stimulus and asset inflation, likening it to ‘a dog chasing its tail.’ He discusses how political elements manipulate economic narratives and speculates on the future of fiscal policy, predicting a move towards more redistributive measures. The conversation touches on sector rotations, the implications of AI, and potential financial strategies.
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Stimulus Feeds The Very Bubble It Tries To Fix
- Stimulating the bottom via checks and QE unintentionally supercharges profits and asset prices, rewarding the top more.
- That feedback loop returns affordability pressures to the start: a dog chasing its tail.
Near‑Term Fiscal Room Is Larger Than Expected
- Strong tax receipts and capital‑gains realizations give the administration roughly $700–800bn of near‑term fiscal room.
- That creates political incentive to stimulate further in an election year.
Position For 2026 Fiscal Impulse
- Expect tax refunds and retroactive changes to hit households in 2026 and add fiscal impulse.
- Use that expected cash flow to position for near‑term cyclical strength, but size risk with stops.
