The gas turbine crunch

30 snips

Dec 26, 2025

Anthony Brough, founder and CEO of Dora Partners, shares insights from his energy consultancy specializing in gas turbines. He discusses the dramatic rise in turbine demand amid supply chain bottlenecks, leading to lead times extending beyond four years. Brough explores the effects of past boom-bust cycles on today’s cautious market, the competing demands from aerospace and oil & gas, and the impact of renewables on turbine requirements. He also highlights the industry's readiness for hydrogen and the growing influence of data centers on turbine demand.

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INSIGHT

Demand Comes From Multiple Competing Sectors

About half of gas turbines ordered each year serve oil and gas, not electric utilities.
Aerospace, oil & gas, and power sectors compete for the same supply chain, amplifying constraints.

INSIGHT

Four-Level Supply Chain Creates Bottlenecks

The turbine supply chain spans raw materials, component manufacturers, OEM assembly, and final packaging/installation.
Level-zero materials and level-one forgings also feed aerospace demand and create cross-industry bottlenecks.

INSIGHT

Costs Up From Raw Materials And Cross-Demand

Turbine and plant costs have risen significantly due to raw material and supply pressures, with plant costs up roughly 30–35% over five years.
Raw material inflation (nickel, titanium, alloys) and aerospace demand are major cost drivers.

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Demand for turbines is growing fast, but so are lead times — causing serious headaches for developers and even cancellations. In Texas, one of six cancelled projects cited “equipment procurement constraints” as the reasons for its withdrawal.

Lead times are stretching to four years and sometimes more. Costs are climbing. So what’s behind the bottleneck?

In this episode, Shayle talks to Anthony Brough, founder and CEO of Dora Partners, a consulting firm focused on the turbine market. Shayle and Anthony cover topics like:

Why previous boom-bust cycles in turbine manufacturing have left the industry skittish — and why Anthony says leaders are approaching this new peak with “guarded optimism”

The competing demands on the turbine supply chain, including from power, oil and gas, and aerospace industries

How lead times have ballooned to four years and, in some cases, even longer

Factors affecting the market beyond load growth, like renewables, storage, affordable gas, and coal retirements

How investment in tech innovation has raised turbine efficiency

How the industry is preparing for hydrogen — if hydrogen scales up

Resources:

Latitude Media: Engie’s pulled project highlights the worsening economics of gas

Latitude Media: High costs, delays prompt withdrawal of five more Texas gas plants

Power Magazine: Gas Power's Boom Sparks a Turbine Supply Crunch

Marketplace: Will we have enough natural gas turbines to power AI data centers?

CTVC: 🌎 Gas turbine gridlock #236

Credits: Hosted by Shayle Kann. Produced and edited by Daniel Woldorff. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is our executive editor.

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