Politics At Sam and Anne's Can Starmer conquer Burnham's kingdom?
Feb 25, 2026
A tight by-election in Gorton and Denton is framed as a major test for Keir Starmer’s government. Voter mood on the ground, local splits and Reform energy are explored. The fallout from Peter Mandelson’s arrest and questions for the Metropolitan Police are examined. Campaign tactics, tactical messaging and the practicalities of turnout and candidate lists are also discussed.
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Scale Of The Upset Required To Flip Gorton And Denton
- Gorton and Denton was a historically safe Labour seat with a 13,000 majority at the general election.
- In 2024 it ranked 38th safest of 411 Labour seats, so losing it would be numerically painful for Keir Starmer's party.
Local Voters Bemused By Star Politicians Arriving
- Sam Coates found voters bemused by intense attention and spotted celebrity-style campaigning, including Lucy Powell driving through and Zach Polanski door-knocking.
- He described quirky local reactions like a woman betting on taking photos with cabinet ministers.
Geography And Demography Shape The By Election
- The constituency is split geographically and demographically: Gorton is denser, diverse and Labour-leaning, Denton is whiter, older and more Reform-friendly.
- Twice as many people live on the Gorton side, which moderates Reform's prospects in the overall result.