To The Contrary with Charlie Sykes “There’s No National Interest With Trump, Just Personal”
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Mar 26, 2026 Phillips O'Brien, historian and Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St Andrews, discusses U.S. strategy and the Iran conflict. He examines how personalized power shapes policy. Conversation covers threats to infrastructure, feasibility of island seizures, corruption entwined with diplomacy, and strains on military morale and democratic guardrails.
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Threatening Power Grids Was A Strategic Bluff
- Trump's threat to destroy Iranian power infrastructure was both legally and strategically reckless.
- O'Brien calls it effectively a call for a war crime and a bluff the Iranians called, exposing U.S. weakness rather than coercing compliance.
Limited Troops Can't Secure The Gulf Long Term
- Sending limited U.S. forces (Marines, 82nd Airborne) can seize places like Qeshm/Karg Island but cannot force the Gulf to reopen permanently.
- O'Brien warns holding territory and securing merchant traffic would require far larger, sustained naval and air commitments or a negotiated settlement.
A Deal With Iran Now Would Likely Be More Generous Than JCPOA
- Any negotiated settlement that keeps the current Iranian regime will likely be more generous than the 2015 JCPOA, contrary to Trump's prior posture.
- O'Brien notes leaked 15-point plan resembles Obama's deal; Iran rejects it and will demand better terms absent regime change.