Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: April 30, 2025
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Apr 30, 2025 Max Kettner, Chief Multi-Asset Strategist at HSBC, predicts economic turbulence ahead and the potential for a recession in 2025. Christopher Hughes, co-founder of Facebook, dives into the challenges facing Big Tech as they gear up for Meta's earnings. Former Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren shares insights on balancing Fed independence with current economic pressures and the outlook for interest rates. Together, they unravel the complexities of navigating the U.S. economy and emerging market opportunities amidst shifting government policies.
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US Economy More Vulnerable Than Expected
- The US is unexpectedly vulnerable to tariffs and economic shocks, unlike earlier optimistic views.
- Risk assets could fall further with disappointing hard data in coming months.
Position for US Risk-Off Scenario
- Expect a US-centric risk off to weaken the dollar rather than strengthen it during downturn.
- Overweight emerging market local debt, especially in high-beta economies, as opportunities arise.
Massive Drop in Ocean Freight Bookings
- Since April 9th, ocean freight bookings from China to the US dropped 60%, affecting ports nationwide.
- This decline will soon hit consumer prices and jobs, signaling big supply chain impacts.