Odd Lots Lots More With Charlie McElligott on This Week's SaaSpocalypse
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Feb 6, 2026 
Charlie McElligott, cross-asset macro strategist at Nomura known for market-flow and positioning analysis, breaks down how market mechanics have shifted. He walks through crowded trades, tight stops, leveraged ETF dynamics, and why software, bitcoin and gold moved differently. Conversation highlights the role of leverage, low-vol strategies, and feedback loops in recent wild market moves.
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Crowded Low-Vol Trends Amplify Crashes
- Crowded, low-volatility trend trades created fragile consensus positions across assets.
- When the dollar stopped falling, those crowded trades rapidly monetized and de-risked, amplifying the selloff.
Bitcoin Didn't Act Like A Debasement Hedge
- Bitcoin and gold diverged, revealing different investor behaviors despite shared 'debasement' narratives.
- Bitcoin traded like overvalued software while gold acted like the preferred real-asset hedge.
AI CapEx And Falling Buybacks Raise Credit Risk
- Big tech burned cash on AI CapEx and buybacks, reducing their role as a volatility dampener.
- Falling buybacks and rising CapEx pressure credit markets and widen spreads for tech issuers.