Power & Politics Iran war throws Canada's economy into the unknown
7 snips
Mar 18, 2026 
David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data and pollster tracking voter sentiment. Claire Fenn, senior economist at RBC focused on monetary policy and trade effects. Katie Simpson, CBC foreign correspondent reporting from the Gulf. They discuss Gulf attacks on energy infrastructure, how oil shocks could feed inflation, Bank of Canada rate decisions amid uncertainty, and shifting public support reflected in recent polling.
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Dual Crisis Shapes Bank Of Canada Dilemma
- Canada faces a dual economic crisis combining trade-driven weakness and war-driven inflation risk.
- Peter Armstrong explains tariffs and a slowing jobs market weaken demand while Iran war volatility pushes up energy and financial market risks.
Oil Spike Has Broad Contagion Effects
- Higher oil prices create conflicting forces: boost energy-export incomes but squeeze household spending and raise input costs.
- Peter Armstrong cites Macklem saying contagion hits shipping, manufacturing and financial conditions, tightening credit and markets.
Monitor Data And Gulf Signals Before Policy Shifts
- Watch incoming economic data and Gulf developments to see how the shock transmits to inflation and growth.
- Armstrong says markets currently price a short-lived conflict, so futures, shipping disruptions and fertilizer shortages are key signals.