Saxo Market Call Stunning market complacency as oil still not flowing through Hormuz
23 snips
Mar 13, 2026 They probe why markets seem oddly calm while oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted. Discussion ranges from short-term market moves and key technical levels to crude forward curves and regional price spreads. The geopolitical scenarios, military logistics and munitions concerns receive attention. Corporate earnings reactions, FX moves and shifting Treasury/Fed dynamics are also covered.
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Equity Technicals Tighten After Oil Shock
- Equity indices saw a broad risk-off move with tech and small caps notably weak after oil shock.
- Hardy notes S&P and NASDAQ are just above their 200-day moving averages and near major range lows to watch.
Private Credit Liquidity Risk Can Trigger Rapid Valuation Collapse
- Private credit and private equity face liquidity stress that can cascade when redemption demands hit illiquid valuations.
- Hardy notes firms like Blue Owl fell sharply and valuations can collapse to cents on the dollar when liquidity vanishes.
Two Week Closure Forces Onshore Cuts And Shipping Lag
- Two-week sustained shutdown through Hormuz forces onshore production cuts and logistic strains.
- Hardy cites Anas al-Haji and the five-to-six week lag to get cargoes to Asia, and pipeline ramp constraints across Saudi desert.