Lead-Lag Live Trust Is Gone: Ted Oakley on Inflation, Fed Failure, and Why Energy Looks Undervalued
Feb 11, 2026
Ted Oakley, founder of Oxbow Advisors with 40+ years advising wealthy clients, explains why inflation may stay sticky and why Federal Reserve guidance is unreliable. He contrasts mega-cap concentration risk with undervalued energy, highlights PPI as an early CPI signal, and outlines separating base capital from investment capital as a survival strategy.
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Inflation Likely To Stay Stuck Short-Term
- Ted Oakley believes inflation will likely stay in a range around 2.6–2.7% for several months rather than rapidly fall.
- He sees current lower inflation as possibly short-lived and subject to housing or input changes.
PPI Offers Earlier Inflation Signal
- Oakley views PPI as a useful input because it shows upstream price pressures.
- He cautions CPI changes can reflect methodology and basket changes rather than pure price signals.
Treat Fed Guidance With Skepticism
- Oakley advises ignoring Fed statements because he finds them consistently late and unreliable.
- He suggests skepticism about Fed guidance until leadership proves credible like Paul Volcker.