The Rachman Review Trump says the Iran war may be ending soon: mission accomplished?
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Apr 2, 2026 
Philip Gordon, a Middle East policy expert who advised the Obama White House and Vice President Harris, breaks down the Iran conflict. He discusses whether the fighting is winding down or escalating. He outlines what the campaign has achieved militarily. He examines the challenge of securing the Strait of Hormuz and the diplomatic and geopolitical fallout.
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Hormuz Closure Raised Prices In The US
- Closing the strait raised global oil prices and directly affected U.S. consumers despite U.S. imports coming from elsewhere.
- Gordon points to 20 million barrels per day removed from markets as the mechanism raising prices everywhere.
Cheap Drones Make Reopening The Strait Harder
- Militarily reopening the strait is extremely difficult because Iran uses cheap, numerous drones to threaten ships.
- Gordon explains that all you need is one or two drones to deter shipping, making maritime clearance much harder than past mine-threat scenarios.
Iran Might Keep Leverage Over Oil Exports
- Iran has incentives not to accept a quick ceasefire that lets the U.S. and Israel demonstrate they can strike at will.
- Gordon argues Iran may instead keep the strait closed and demand payment or leverage while still exporting its own oil.