Zero: The Climate Race Lessons to avoid societal collapse, from 5,000 years of history
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Feb 26, 2026 
Luke Kemp, researcher at Cambridge and author of Goliath's Curse, studies 5,000 years of societal collapse and long-term risk. He contrasts Hollywood myths with historical patterns, explores inequality and power as core drivers, and outlines four risk factors shaping collapse. He also discusses democratic reforms like citizens' juries and how global interconnectedness and technology change modern vulnerabilities.
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What Collapse Actually Means
- Collapse is defined as the simultaneous contraction of multiple power structures: state, economy, and population.
- Luke Kemp built the MOROS database to measure state lifespans and identify common collapse drivers across 5,000 years.
Collapse Is Not Mass Panic
- Popular portrayals of collapse (Mad Max, zombies, Hobbesian chaos) are misleading; people usually self-organize cooperatively during disasters.
- Kemp cites disaster studies and the post-9/11 boat lift that moved over half a million people as evidence.
Some Collapses Improved Ordinary Lives
- Collapse can benefit ordinary people while elites lose power and wealth.
- Examples: post-1991 Somalia saw maternal mortality fall 30% and infant mortality fall 24%, and post-Rome skeletal records show healthier people.
