Zero: The Climate Race Lessons to avoid societal collapse, from 5,000 years of history
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Feb 26, 2026 
Luke Kemp, researcher at Cambridge and author of Goliath's Curse, studies 5,000 years of societal collapse and long-term risk. He contrasts Hollywood myths with historical patterns, explores inequality and power as core drivers, and outlines four risk factors shaping collapse. He also discusses democratic reforms like citizens' juries and how global interconnectedness and technology change modern vulnerabilities.
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Prehistory Wasn't Exceptionally Violent
- Paleolithic violence rates are likely much lower than often claimed; systematic studies suggest 1–2% lethal violence.
- Kemp references Haas and Pustell's 4,000-skeleton study and battlefield psychology evidence.
Common Collapse Stories Can Be Misattributed
- Jared Diamond's island-focused cases (like Easter Island) misattribute causes; many collapses involved external factors like European disease and violence.
- Kemp argues Easter Island is genocide not ecocide and criticizes small sample selection.
Progress Is Recent And Hard Won
- Historical 'progress' is recent and uneven; agriculture and early states reduced health and wages until social movements and modern reforms reversed trends.
- Kemp uses skeletal height and real wages to show stagnation until industrial and political change.
