The World, the Universe and Us Scientists Concerned By a Sudden Increase in the Rate of Sea Level Rise
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May 13, 2026 
Michael le Page, climate reporter for New Scientist, shares reporting from the European Geosciences Union meeting. He highlights a sudden jump in satellite-measured sea level rise around 2012. He outlines possible causes like aerosol unmasking and deep ocean warming. He warns about long-term ocean heat storage, ice-sheet risks, and gaps in policy and planning.
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Sudden 2012 Step Change In Sea Level Rise
- Satellite records show a sudden step change in sea level rate around 2012, rising from ~2.9 mm/yr to ~4.1 mm/yr.
- That ~1.2 mm/yr jump, if persistent, adds ~10 cm over a century and matches observed recent acceleration in warming.
Unmasking Warming As Aerosol Pollution Falls
- The 2012 sea level jump maps onto a doubling in the rate of global warming observed after ~2013–2014.
- Researchers link that warming acceleration to a decline in cooling aerosol pollution that had masked CO2 warming.
Aerosol Cuts Reveal Hidden Climate Heating
- Aerosols (e.g., sulfur dioxide from shipping, coal plants, vehicle exhaust) have had an overall cooling effect by reflecting sunlight.
- Cutting these pollutants reduces that masking effect, revealing additional warming from accumulated CO2 emissions.