School of War Did Trump Miscalculate on Iran? with Niall Ferguson
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Mar 20, 2026 Niall Ferguson, historian and author known for works on economic and military history, offers a brisk tour of chokepoints like the Dardanelles and the Strait of Hormuz. He compares Gallipoli, the Tanker War, and Ukraine’s sea tactics. Short takes on drone warfare, U.S. munitions limits, timelines for reopening Hormuz, and how Beijing might exploit U.S. distractions.
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Ukraine Won The Battle Of The Black Sea With Drones
- Ukraine used asymmetric means including sea drones to neutralize the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
- Ferguson highlights explosive drone boats and cheaper systems that made the fleet a negligible factor and preserved Ukrainian trade routes.
Subsidize Insurance To Keep Trade Flowing
- Subsidize marine insurance at scale to keep commerce flowing when insurers spike premiums from asymmetric threats.
- Ferguson notes the US insurance subsidy after the Black Sea fight worked but current US support is too small for Hormuz risks.
We Ignored Ukraine's Cheap Drone Warning
- The West underinvested in cheap, attritable drone and counter-drone systems despite Ukrainian warnings.
- Ferguson says Ukrainians demonstrated scalable drone warfare and Europe/Gulf failed to mobilize equivalent defenses in time.
