This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler Does Putin really think he can still win in Ukraine?
Feb 26, 2026
Samuel Greene, Professor of Russian politics at King’s College London, explains Kremlin strategy and the war in Ukraine. He discusses the slow battlefield stalemate and attacks on civilian infrastructure. He outlines shifting Kremlin objectives, Russia’s manpower and economic strains, risks around fragile negotiations, and hybrid threats to Europe.
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Russia's Gains Are Costly and Limited
- Russia's battlefield gains are incremental and costly rather than decisive wins.
- Samuel A. Greene notes progress is moderate and paid for in manpower, while Ukraine retains defensive capability despite heavy damage to civilians and infrastructure.
Vague Rhetoric Lets Kremlin Shift Goals
- Kremlin objectives have been rhetorically broad and flexible to allow retreat without losing face.
- Greene argues terms like demilitarization and denazification were vague, enabling Putin to redefine aims as the campaign stalled.
Dissent Exists Quietly Among Elites And Nationalists
- Open elite dissent is rare but dissatisfaction exists in two pockets: anti-war exiles/prisoners and disgruntled nationalists.
- Greene cites Kozak's quiet departure and Prigozhin's mutiny as signs of managed but present disaffection.