The Weekly Take from CBRE Walking on Sunshine: Why commercial real estate feels investable again
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Mar 17, 2026 Henry Chin, CBRE’s Global Head of Research, offers macro and real estate research perspective. He explores why 2026 could be a strong vintage for U.S. real estate. Topics include income-driven returns over cap rate moves, value-add industrial and powered land, amenity-rich office outperformers, data centers and rekindled global capital flows.
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Income Growth Replaces Cap Rate Tailwinds
- High interest rates shift return drivers from cap-rate compression to income growth.
- Henry Chin and Spencer Levy say operators must boost NOI because 10-year yields linger near 4% and cap-rate tailwinds are gone.
Weakened Dollar Rekindles Foreign Inflows
- Foreign capital that fell to under 4% of U.S. transactions can rebound as the dollar has devalued ~11%, improving U.S. math for overseas buyers.
- Spencer Levy notes policy wins (1031, carried interest) also make the U.S. more attractive.
Treat 2026 As A U.S. Buying Opportunity
- 2026 looks like a strong vintage to invest in U.S. real estate due to repricing, falling rates, and recovering fundamentals.
- Henry Chin recommends overweighting the U.S. vs Europe and underweighting Asia-Pacific as capital allocators.