Next Africa Is Ethiopia On the Brink of War?
Feb 19, 2026
Kjetil Tronvoll, a Horn of Africa scholar, and Simon Marks, an East Africa reporter, unpack troop buildups near Tigray. They discuss reasons Eritrea was left out of the Pretoria deal. They explore Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access and shifting Tigrayan alliances. They map regional proxy ties and the risk of wider spillover across the Horn.
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Large-Scale Troop Mobilization Northward
- Ethiopian forces have mobilized in their thousands toward the north, approaching the Eritrean border and Tigray region.
- Simon Marks highlights this as a repeat of the 2020–22 dynamic between Addis and the Tigrayan regional authorities.
Pretoria Deal Left Eritrea Outside The Settlement
- Eritrea was excluded from the Pretoria Agreement, leaving its leadership hostile to that settlement.
- Kjetil Tronvoll stresses Eritrea wanted to annihilate the TPLF and saw the agreement as preserving it.
Ethiopia's Push For Red Sea Access
- Addis increasingly frames access to the Red Sea and Assab port as existential for Ethiopia.
- Tronvoll notes Addis signals willingness to pursue access if negotiations fail, heightening Eritrea's threat perception.