The Retail Earnings Breakdown: Who’s Winning 2026?

The dust has settled on Q4 and full-year 2025, and the numbers tell a fascinating story about the future of how we buy, ship, and sell. From Amazon’s record-breaking AWS growth to Walmart laying down the gauntlet, we are diving deep into the ripple effects these giants are creating across the entire ecosystem.

In this episode, Rick Watson breaks down the split personalities of Meta, the agentic jump ball between Shopify and Stripe, and why UPS finds itself in an incredibly tight spot between Amazon and union contracts. Whether you’re a David moving fast or a Goliath trying to transform, these are the trends you cannot afford to ignore.

Inside the Briefing

1. Amazon’s AI & Grocery Bet: Online stores are a $278 billion business. While physical retail has struggled, Amazon is doubling down on Whole Foods with a 20% increase in store count. Meanwhile, they are pouring $200 billion into capital expenditure, primarily for data centers and chips to fuel their AI driver.
2. The Walmart Juggernaut: Walmart is executing at an elite level, with 60% of stores now using automated freight and 50% of e-commerce shipments being automated. Their membership and ads business has scaled significantly, reaching one-third of Amazon’s operating profit.
3. The Shopify/Stripe Power Couple: Shopify saw a 30% revenue increase to $11.5 billion. Their B2B sector is a hidden gem, growing 96%. Notably, 64 cents of every dollar in Shopify’s merchant services business goes to their partner, Stripe.
4. Meta’s $83 Billion Gamble: Meta’s advertising business remains highly profitable with a 30% operating margin, but the Reality Labs division has lost $83 billion to date. Mark Zuckerberg is betting that smart glasses will be a cognitive necessity within five years.
5. UPS & PayPal in Transition: UPS is facing a massive volume decline as Amazon moves a million parcels a day away from their network. PayPal is currently described as a ship without a rudder, with rumors circulating that the company—or its crown jewel, Venmo—could be headed for a sale.

The biggest risk right now isn't being small; it's being a giant that cannot move. If you're an underdog, use your speed to your advantage because you can move faster than the incumbents.

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Chapters:

Introduction

Amazon commentary

Meta commentary

Shopify commentary

PayPal commentary

UPS commentary

Walmart commentary

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