The Intrinsic Value Podcast - The Investor’s Podcast Network MI Rewind: A Rational Approach to Investing w/ Tobias Carlisle
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Sep 27, 2024 
Tobias Carlisle, founder of The Acquirer’s Multiple® and Acquirers Funds®, shares his journey from law to value investing, heavily influenced by legends like Warren Buffett. He discusses mean reversion, explaining its significance in investment strategies, and the importance of the Shiller PE ratio. Tobias dives into how inflation shapes his investment decisions and offers insights on an appropriate discount rate, including how it relates to Buffett's methodology. His approach emphasizes seeking deeply undervalued stocks to navigate today's market effectively.
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Blogging The Net‑Net Opportunity
- Tobias started a blog, greenbacked.com, during the 2008–2009 net-net opportunities to highlight undervalued activist situations.
- That work fed into his later quantitative and fund-building efforts.
Mean Reversion Drives Value Returns
- Value outperformance can stem from behavioral overreaction and eventual mean reversion, not just higher risk.
- Mean reversion gives value investors opportunities when prices stray far from fundamentals.
Shiller PE As A Macro Valuation Signal
- Shiller PE smooths earnings with a 10-year inflation-adjusted average to show long-term market valuation.
- A Shiller PE near 40 is historically rare and signals the index is highly valued relative to long-run norms.