Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes Ceasefire in Iran
Apr 10, 2026
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, a Middle East expert at ECFR and Brookings, breaks down the Pakistan-led Iran ceasefire and its murky terms. She explores questions about Lebanon's role and control of the Strait of Hormuz. She discusses nuclear enrichment disputes, missile and proxy dynamics, and the strain on transatlantic ties and NATO amid unconventional U.S. diplomacy.
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Ceasefire Is Ambiguous And Fragile
- The announced ceasefire is highly ambiguous with both Washington and Tehran offering contradictory accounts.
- Pakistan-led talks yielded a 14–15 day truce but key issues like Lebanon, Hormuz, and enrichment remain undefined, making the truce fragile.
Lebanon's Inclusion Sparked Conflicting Claims
- Lebanon was reportedly part of the ceasefire agreement but Israel contested that, and Trump later walked back inclusion after speaking with Netanyahu.
- Shahbaz Sharif and Pakistani officials said the truce covered Lebanon, yet heavy Israeli bombardment resumed, undermining the deal.
Trump's Phone Calls Have Shifted Israeli Choices
- Marked precedent: Trump previously used direct US pressure on Israel to secure ceasefires, notably in Gaza.
- That phone leverage led to past ceasefires, showing personal calls can influence Israeli actions despite political sensitivities.
