Real Vision: Finance & Investing Risk Isn’t Gone and Markets Are Still Unprepared | Macro Mondays: March 30, 2026
11 snips
Mar 30, 2026 They analyze the Iran conflict timeline and how disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz could shock energy and inflation. They discuss military movements, diplomatic options, and whether markets are complacent. They explore market positioning, flows into energy, and potential winners if supply chains rebound. They also cover rate and dollar moves, upcoming economic prints, and portfolio hedging ideas.
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Oil Supply Shock Is Bigger Than Simple Reroutes
- The Strait of Hormuz closure removed ~20 million barrels/day and mitigation has been limited to crude reroutes.
- Saudi east‑to pipeline and Fujairah exports add a few million bpd, while negotiated ship transits only add ~1.5 million bpd short term.
Byproduct Shortages Threaten Tech Supply Chains
- Markets and policy focus mainly on crude while forgetting industrial byproducts like helium and sulfur.
- Andreas warns helium and net gas disruptions matter for semiconductors and other supply chains beyond oil prices.
Avoid Broad Long Bets; Focus On Energy Or Relative Trades
- In the current environment most long‑only managers are frozen; prefer trading energy or relative/short trades instead of broad long exposure.
- Andreas and his team are waiting for clearer news from negotiations before increasing risk.