An energy shock and the inflation outlook

Markets remain focused on the Middle East, and there are risks that the dislocations in energy prices could linger even if the fighting soon cools, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “The oil disruption actually may be much longer with the markets than the physical conflict", Deepak says, noting that oil transport has been a major concern, but that production facilities in the region have also been harmed.

The inflationary pressures of energy prices are likely to affect central banks as well, Deepak says, with decisions due this week from the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England. "There has already been a sharp repricing in Fed rate expectations", Deepak says, with fewer rate cuts expected in the near term. He also said that US bond auctions will be important to watch this week, as well as movements in the interest rate on 10-year Treasury bonds.

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