SpyTalk Trump's Wars Raise Stakes For Taiwan
Mar 5, 2026
David Shedd, former Defense Intelligence Agency director and co-author of The Great Heist, offers stark assessments of China and Iran. He weighs the odds of a Taiwan invasion and how Beijing reads U.S. actions. He connects Chinese industrial espionage to global influence strategies and calls for stronger national economic security coordination.
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Air Strikes Won’t Guarantee Regime Change
- Air campaigns can degrade capabilities but rarely achieve regime change.
- David Shedd notes Iran's ideological IRGC and MOIS will fight on and air strikes won't guarantee collapse after 47 years of resistance.
Iran's Regime Is Structurally Resilient
- Iran has built-in succession and tolerance for pain that limits decapitation strategies.
- Shedd contrasts Iraq 2003 de-Baathification creating vacuum with Iran's managed succession and entrenched security apparatus.
Xi Measures US Resolve Before Taiwan Action
- Xi watches Ukraine and Iran to gauge US resolve before acting on Taiwan.
- Shedd judges it's roughly 50-50 Xi will attempt invasion by 2027, stressing PLA modernization aided by stolen tech.
