Ones and Tooze Trump's Economy, One Year On
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Feb 20, 2026 A sharp rundown of tariff impacts, immigration shifts, and large federal workforce cuts in year one of a new administration. They trace how these moves affected manufacturing, tax processing, and housing affordability. The conversation also covers crypto's political role and a country report on Dutch politics, labor patterns, and chip-industry strengths.
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Big Job Cuts, Small Fiscal Gains
- The DOGE cuts slashed federal employment by about 250,000 in under a year but did not reduce overall government spending.
- Adam Tooze says the cuts demoralized the civil service and saved only a small fraction of projected spending.
Inflation vs. Affordability
- Falling inflation measures the rate of price change but doesn't restore prior affordability because prices rarely fall.
- Tooze notes real wages have risen slightly, especially for lower-income workers, yet many still report an affordability crisis.
Generational Affordability Gap
- Affordability worries are generational and concentrated among younger adults facing lumpy costs like housing, childcare, and college.
- Visibility of high-cost metros (e.g., New York) amplifies perceptions despite rising real wages.