Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

"It's The Worst Demand Market EVER" For Housing | Nick Gerli, Reventure Consulting ​

Feb 17, 2026
Nick Gerli, housing analyst and founder of ReVenture Consulting, blends data-driven analysis of U.S. housing, migration, rents, and valuations. He argues demand has collapsed, inventories are rising, and prices must fall to restore balance. Discussion covers steep regional corrections, falling rents, migration shifts, builder incentives, and signals for when buyers might re-enter the market.
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ANECDOTE

Road-Trip Snapshot: Empty Texas Rentals

  • Nick toured Texas communities and saw unexpectedly large numbers of empty rental homes and for-rent signs.
  • He reported one community with roughly a quarter of houses listed for rent, illustrating surplus supply.
ADVICE

Watch National Inventory Thresholds

  • Monitor national inventory; ReVenture sees ~912,000 homes for sale and wants >1.1M to force price cuts.
  • Expect seasonal swings and seller delusion to delay price adjustments.
INSIGHT

Newer Buyers Will Set Market Prices

  • Owners' cost pressures (taxes, insurance) and rising share of mortgages >6% will push more listings.
  • The pool of locked-in sub-3% mortgages is shrinking; newer sellers set market prices.
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