Sinocism Live Sinocism Live: Council on Foreign Relations President Michael Froman on the US-China trade war
Oct 16, 2025
In this conversation, Michael Froman, former U.S. Trade Representative and president of the Council on Foreign Relations, dives into the complexities of the U.S.-China trade war. He evaluates the current state of relations and prospects for upcoming summits, shedding light on China's rare earths strategy and implications for global coalitions. Froman highlights the risks of economic over-reliance on China, the need for worker retraining amid economic dislocations, and the evolving rules of the international trade system shaped by both superpowers' industrial policies.
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Export Controls Have Become Trade Tools
- Export controls are shifting from pure national-security tools into negotiable trade levers.
- China's expansive licensing and IP demands mark a notable departure from traditional narrow security focus.
The Rules-Based System Is Fraying
- The old WTO-centered rules-based system is fracturing as major powers follow separate rules.
- Expect issue-specific coalitions of willing countries rather than universal multilateral deals.
WTO Remains Useful But Not Rulemaker
- The WTO still matters for monitoring and MFN coverage but cannot drive new rulemaking alone.
- It can serve as an umbrella for subsets of countries willing to submit to binding processes.
