Frontline: The War in Ukraine and Global Security Putin’s offensive stalls on the frontline as Starlink shutdown slams the brakes | Mick Ryan
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Feb 19, 2026 
Mick Ryan, Major General (ret.) and military scholar known for writing on the War for Ukraine, breaks down battlefield dynamics and strategy. He discusses Starlink's sudden shutdown and its tactical shock on Russian assaults. He explores surprise in warfare, drone and AI trends, and what strategic shifts Europe and allies must make.
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Surprise Has Strategic Effects
- The Starlink shutdown produced tactical surprise that degraded Russian coordination and paused many assaults.
- Ukrainians exploited that window to achieve breakthroughs and gain several hundred square kilometres.
Replace Starlink With Multiple Systems
- Russia cannot replace Starlink with a single system and will mix line-of-sight, other satellites and indigenous options.
- Expect them to seek Chinese alternatives and use multiple systems to regain connectivity over time.
Dynamic War, Small Territorial Shifts
- The war remains dynamic with daily operations and long-range strikes despite limited territorial change.
- Territory shifts are small historically, roughly one to 200 square kilometres a month.