The Stock Market Is Showing Signs Of Technical Breakdown | Lance Roberts

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Feb 14, 2026

Lance Roberts, a portfolio manager known for data-driven market analysis, warns of technical strain as the S&P struggles near 7,000 and rising volatility threatens a breakdown. He discusses sector rotation from mega-cap tech into value, valuation tradeoffs for software and AI winners, housing and CPI dynamics, and why he is raising cash while watching moving averages and VIX signals.

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INSIGHT

Natural Gas Has A Different Opportunity

Natural gas (and pipelines) look more attractive than oil producers given demand from data centers.
Pipeline and LNG dynamics create differentiated opportunities within energy.

INSIGHT

Financial Nihilism Is A Recurrent Cycle

Financial nihilism repeats cycles of youth-driven speculation seen in 1999 and 2021.
Speculative behavior rarely beats consistent saving, investing, and discipline over time.

INSIGHT

Retail Traders Have Lagged Broad Market Returns

Many young retail traders lost money on Robinhood since 2021 despite the market's rise.
Dollar-cost averaging into broad indexes beats speculative trading for most retail investors.

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REGISTER FOR THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S SPRING ONLINE CONFERENCE AT THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT PRICE at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/conferenceWhile the S&P has hit a new record high this year, it is having a difficult time rising back above 7,000.The technical action is weak, and the 20-Daily Moving Average is in danger of crossing below the 50-Daily Moving Average.Should that indeed happen, it substantially increases the odds of a further material decline.Will the market recover? Or will it roll-over?Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds, as well as the the recent rise in volatility, the latest CPI inflation data, "financial nihilism", the implications of warmer US-Russia relations, the housing market, and Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.#marketcorrection #volatility #inflation _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.