Prof G Markets What $4 Gas Would Do to the Economy
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Mar 12, 2026 
Jackson Ader, Managing Director of Software Equity Research at KeyBanc, offers quick takes on Oracle, cloud growth, and AI infrastructure demand. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, breaks down February inflation, how Middle East tensions pushed oil and pump prices, and what sustained $4 gas would cost households and the economy.
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February Inflation Likely Closer To Three Percent
- February CPI at 2.4% understates true inflation which is closer to 3% after accounting measurement issues.
- Mark Zandi warns 3% is too high for comfort and the Fed-focused PCE deflator due Friday will likely read about 3% on the nose.
Markets Treat CPI Print As Historical Noise
- Recent CPI is a rearview mirror and markets barely reacted because it doesn't reflect future inflation.
- Zandi says the Fed will watch the PCE deflator and forward-looking measures, not this historical CPI print.
Gas Prices Jumped Rapidly To Mid Three Dollars
- Gasoline averaged just over $3.50 per gallon and rose about $0.50 in a week according to AAA survey.
- If oil stays near $85–$90 per barrel, Zandi expects gas around $3.75 quickly and higher oil could push gas to $4+.