Money For the Rest of Us Is Another Great Financial Crisis Coming? 5 Ways to Prepare
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Mar 25, 2026 They discuss how geopolitical tensions, especially conflict around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, could trigger oil and supply shocks that stress markets. They contrast today’s risks with 2008 and question limits of economic models. Practical preparedness steps are outlined, from building liquid reserves to reducing exposure and creating optionality. The conversation ends with a reminder to lean on human skills and relationships.
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When War Becomes An Economic Shock
- Wars can be less damaging to markets than uncertainty, but physical disruptions to supply chains and commodities can turn a war into a systemic economic shock.
- J. David Stein highlights the Strait of Hormuz closure and sustained oil above $90 as the key variable that could turn the Iran conflict into a deeper crisis.
Popper Illustrates Why Invading Iran Backfires
- David recounts the scale and targets of the initial strikes on Iran and the subsequent Iranian retaliation with missiles, drones, and leadership changes.
- He uses Karl Popper's three principles to show invasions produce reactions, unintended repercussions, and strengthen opposition forces.
Physical Risks Now Drive Financial Vulnerability
- Modern systemic vulnerability is shifting from financial engineering to physical systems like power, water, and supply chains which lack good risk-detection models.
- Richard Bookstaber argues market models spot price risks but cannot read grid failures or droughts until damage is done.
