Global Data Pod Global Data Watch Weekender: Some signal, a lot of noise
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Feb 13, 2026 A lively run-through of recoupling trends that could boost hiring even as consumer spending cools. Close reads of payroll data, seasonality quirks, and what a January surge really means. Deep dives into inflation signals like shelter and supercore, plus health insurance measurement lags. Global angles cover China credit, Japan’s post-election fiscal choices, and central bank politics shaping policy risks.
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Early-2026 Recoupling Between Hiring And Spending
- The U.S. and global economy look set to 'recouple' with hiring picking up even as consumer spending cools.
- This suggests growth will lift hiring without producing a strong acceleration in overall GDP.
Hiring Momentum Is Picking Up Toward 100k
- Recent payrolls and other labor indicators point to a pickup in hiring momentum versus mid-2025 weakness.
- Bruce Kasman judges a roughly 100,000 monthly private payroll pace is plausible into Q1.
Treat January Payrolls As Partly Noisy
- January payrolls are a large upside surprise but may include seasonal and sector-specific noise, especially in healthcare and education.
- Joseph Lupton cautions smoothing the January jump with likely softer February data before concluding momentum.