The Sound of Economics First assessment of China's 15th Five-Year Plan
Mar 13, 2026
Bert Hofman, resident senior fellow at the East Asian Institute and former World Bank economist specializing in East Asian development, offers a first take on China’s 15th Five-Year Plan. He discusses growth targets and demand-side challenges. He explores the plan’s tech push, export controls and innovation dynamics. He considers implications for Europe and argues for strategic policy responses.
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Supply Side Focus Leaves Demand Gap
- The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes supply-side and industrial policy while downplaying demand-side rebalancing.
- Bert Hofman notes strong tech focus but weak measures to boost consumption, risking continued reliance on external demand.
Plan Accepts Lower Growth Without New Model
- The plan accepts slower growth and prioritizes "high-quality" expansion rather than returning to past rapid rates.
- Alicia García Herrero argues there's no new growth model and weak wages, consumption, and manufacturing investment are core constraints.
Small Demand Measures Could Matter If Scaled
- The plan contains scattered demand-side measures like stronger social safety nets and reallocating SOE profits to pensions.
- Bert Hofman sees potential but says details and scale are unclear, so outcomes remain uncertain.