Bulwark Takes There Was NO Imminent Threat from Iran (w/ Erin Banco)
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Mar 20, 2026 Erin Banco, Reuters national security reporter who covers U.S. intelligence and Middle East conflicts, unpacks how U.S. actions toward Iran unfolded. She walks through intelligence assessments, Israeli pressure, and last-minute decision dynamics. She also explores unexpected regional fallout, planning gaps, and differing U.S.-Israeli objectives.
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Netanyahu Persuaded Trump With Ballistic Missile Briefings
- Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran grew from sustained Israeli persuasion and repeated meetings with Benjamin Netanyahu.
- Netanyahu repeatedly briefed Trump on ballistic missile risks and convinced him the long-term threat justified U.S. action.
Intelligence Said Iran's Missile Threat Was Not Imminent
- U.S. intelligence concluded Iran’s ballistic missile program was not developing as fast as Israel claimed and any ICBM capability would take years.
- Analysts warned the program wasn't an imminent homeland threat despite political messaging to the contrary.
Assessments Warned Of Broad Regional Retaliation
- Intelligence assessments modeled varied outcomes if Israel attacked Iran alone or with U.S. support, and they warned of likely retaliation and regional risks.
- Analysts predicted IRGC control would persist and strikes could close the Strait of Hormuz and hit U.S. outposts.