All Things Policy The Iran Brief: China’s Stakes and Strategies
Mar 20, 2026
Anushka Saxena, Staff Research Analyst at the Takshashila Institution focused on China and West Asia, breaks down Beijing’s stakes. She outlines China’s economic ties in the region. She maps the strategic tightrope between supporting Iran and protecting Gulf investments. She explores possible covert arms links, diplomatic levers, and steps to safeguard Chinese nationals and commerce.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
China Sees West Asia As Economic Leverage
- China treats West Asia as an economic-technological zone where oil for infrastructure deals and BRI projects create mutual leverage.
- Anushka Saxena highlights China’s $400bn Iran CSP, 13% of oil from Iran, and massive Gulf investments and expatriate exposure that force a tightrope policy.
Beijing Wants US Distracted But Not Regional Devastation
- China benefits if US resources are tied down in West Asia but worries about wider spillover that would threaten Gulf investments and shipping.
- Saxena notes Chinese ships, insurance risks, and the risk of a prolonged war that would harm Beijing’s interests.
China Will Support Iran Indirectly Not Openly
- China is unlikely to openly defend Iran but will provide indirect support limited by sanctions and its own risk calculus.
- Saxena lists confirmed/rumored supplies like HQ-9 air defenses, radar, possible CM-302 missiles, and satellite access via BeiDou to proxies.