Global Data Pod Global Data Pod Weekender: All’s unclear that ends unclear
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Apr 3, 2026 They debate recent payroll strength versus caution from global PMIs. They unpack risks from Strait of Hormuz closures and potential energy-driven supply shocks. They contrast COVID-era disruptions with current bottlenecks and inventory dynamics. They weigh scenarios for oil prices, inflation trajectories, and central bank responses.
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Early Year Momentum Amid Energy Shock
- Global activity showed solid momentum at the start of the year despite headwinds from energy and supply shocks.
- Bruce Kasman highlights recoupling in labor markets and tech-driven support, but warns a ticking clock if supply remains constrained.
Inventories Are Buffering The Supply Shock
- Inventories and other cushions have so far absorbed the large energy supply shock without runaway hoarding demand.
- Joseph Lupton notes this shock could be the largest on record but cushions have delayed severe price reactions.
Nonlinearity Risk In Oil Prices
- Oil prices have risen but not yet produced a parabolic spike; risk rises each additional week the Strait remains constrained.
- Bruce Kasman and Joseph Lupton map scenarios from $110 now to $150+ if disruptions widen.