1000x Finding Edge as a Trader, The Hyperliquid Thesis & Trades For 2026 | Capital Flows
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Mar 11, 2026 Capital Flows, a macro trader and researcher focused on rates, FX and capital flows, joins to discuss finding trading edge and building models. He covers market microstructure shifts, combining discretionary and systematic approaches. They examine Iran-related market impacts, liquidity-driven dip buying, and high-conviction trades like the Hyperliquid thesis and specific 2026 trade ideas.
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Quantify Systematic Returns Before Adding Discretion
- Delineate what returns you can extract systematically versus discretionarily and quantify hit ratio, risk/reward, and trade frequency for each.
- Then add discretionary signals (non-price fundamentals, flows, liquidity) that price alone cannot capture to improve overall expectancy.
Use Economic Flows To Predict Forced Actions
- Use non-price monthly time series like economic data, balance of payments, and liquidity to signal which market agents will be forced to act.
- Backtest how those flows shift momentum versus mean reversion to decide when to bet with or against momentum.
Big Players Create Mean Reversion Pop Opportunities
- Markets now have larger, slower institutional players and faster shocks, creating wide intraday moves and high implied vol but muted intramonth realized vol.
- Recognize execution-driven orderbook moves as likely mean reversion events to capture liquidity provision opportunities.